DES MOINES, Iowa - A political infrastructure that pushed Barack Obama to victory in the Iowa caucuses and an increase in Democratic voter registration make him the favorite in the state in November, but an intense catch-up effort could put Republican John McCain back in the game, veteran political strategists in both parties say.
"John McCain's problem in Iowa is Obama already has an infrastructure here and McCain doesn't. He pulled his staff out, he pulled his people out," said Iowa House Minority Leader Chris Rants, a Republican. "He has to decide if Iowa is part of his strategy, is Iowa going to be a battleground or not."
Des Moines lawyer and Republican National Committee member Stephen Roberts was equally candid.
"It's a really tough state for (McCain)," he said. "It's possible but it's going to be a long, long road to Tipperary."
Democrats can barely contain their eagerness to start the fall campaign with a candidate who is familiar to the electorate because of the town hall meetings and rallies he held in virtually every corner of the state beginning in February 2007.
"He starts with some advantages," said state Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, a Democrat who backed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primary. "We will work very, very hard to make sure this state goes for Barack Obama."
"I think because of the groundwork he laid in the caucuses and the registration trends across the state, Senator Obama has to be the early favorite to win Iowa this fall," said veteran Democratic activist Ron Parker.
Iowa swung both ways in recent elections, going for Democrat Al Gore by just over 4,000 votes in 2000 and favoring President Bush by 12,000 votes in 2004. The state has 7 electoral votes to award.
Obama has said the state is one of his targets, calling it an important swing state for Democrats in November. He was in Des Moines the night he won Oregon's primary in May, and had planned a swing Wednesday through vote-rich eastern Iowa before he canceled to avoid disrupting flood relief efforts.
Obama won the Jan. 3 caucuses when a record-shattering 240,000 Democrats showed up, giving him a major boost on his way to the nomination in a state that's been trending Democratic. The party now controls the governor's office and both chambers of the Legislature.
The campaign for the Democratic nomination also led to a surge in voter registration. Democrats now have 664,031 registered voters, compared to 577,914 registered Republicans, according to the state. Another 685,106 registered without declaring a party preference.
McCain ran much more of a shoestring effort in Iowa with a skeleton staff and limited appearances, and was the fourth GOP finisher in the caucuses. He skipped the contest entirely when he sought the Republican nomination in 2000.
Veteran activist David Roederer, who headed McCain's effort this year and will keep the job for the fall campaign, says a win is possible.
"The fact that we are down 80,000 in registered voters gives me some pause," Roederer said. "Our voter registration situation has changed over the last four years and it hasn't been positive for us."
Still, he's looking to open a campaign office and recruit field staffers, with a regional office covering Iowa, Illinois and Missouri.
"Things can change on that, but as of now it truly is a targeted state," Roederer said.
Democrats acknowledge that two consecutive close elections make Iowa a contested state this year.
"You've got to think that McCain is going to look hard before waving a white flag in Iowa and giving up," Parker said. "Obviously Obama is already racking up frequent flier miles visiting Iowa. The good news is that will continue through November."
Iowa has voted Democratic in four of the last five presidential elections, noted Eric Woolson, a Republican activist who ran former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's campaign.
"It's a hard one to win as evidenced by the last five cycles," said Woolson. "Iowa is a tougher state for Republicans than it used to be."
