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| In this Thursday, Oct. 4, 2012 photo, Wahidullah, 32, whose spine was pierced by a bullet during the civil war that left him crippled, poses for a photograph in front of Darul Aman Palace which was damaged during the civil war in Kabul, Afghanistan. Wahidullah was a teenager when he fought in west Kabul during the civil war. |
KABUL,
Afghanistan (AP) -- Nobody wants a repeat of the bloody ethnic
fighting that followed the Soviet exit from Afghanistan in the 1990s -
least of all 32-year-old Wahidullah who was crippled by a bullet that
pierced his spine during the civil war.
Yet as
the Afghan war began its 12th year on Sunday, fears loom that the
country will again fracture along ethnic lines once international combat
forces leave by the end of 2014.
"It was a
very bad situation," said Wahidullah, who was a teenager when he was
wounded in the 1992-1996 civil war. "All these streets around here were
full of bullet shells, burned tanks and vehicles," he added, squinting
into a setting sun that cast a golden glow on the bombed-out Darulaman
Palace still standing in west Kabul not far from where he was wounded.
"People
could not find bread or water, but rockets were everywhere," said
Wahidullah, who now hobbles around on red-handled crutches. He goes by
one name only, as do many Afghans.
The
dilapidated palace is a reminder of the horror of the civil war when
rival factions - who had joined forces against Soviet fighters before
they left in early 1989 - turned their guns on each other. Tens of
thousands of civilians were killed.
Fed up
with the bloodletting, the Afghan people longed for someone - anyone -
who would restore peace and order. The Taliban did so.
But
once in power, they imposed harsh Islamic laws that repressed women and
they publicly executed, stoned and lashed people for alleged crimes and
sexual misconduct. The Taliban also gave sanctuary to al-Qaida in the
run-up to the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S. When the Taliban
refused to give up the al-Qaida leaders who orchestrated 9/11, the U.S.
invaded on Oct. 7, 2001.
Eleven years later, Afghanistan remains divided and ethnic tension still simmers.
The
Taliban, dominated by the ethnic Pashtun majority, have strongholds in
the south. Ethnic minorities such as Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks live
predominantly in central and northern Afghanistan. The fear is that when
international forces leave, minority groups will take up arms to
prevent another Taliban takeover and that members of the Afghan security
forces could walk off the government force and fight with their ethnic
leaders.
Anxiety and confusion about what will
happen after the foreign forces leave permeates every aspect of
society. Political debate about an Afghanistan post-2014 is getting more
vocal. Some political leaders threaten to take up arms while others
preach progress, development and peace. Young Afghans with money and
connections are trying to flee the country before 2014.
There
also is mounting uncertainty about the upcoming transfer of power. At
the same time that foreign troops are scheduled to complete their
withdrawal in 2014, Afghans will go to the polls to elect a successor to
President Hamid Karzai, who is barred by the constitution from running
for a third term.
The Afghan people already
view their government as weak and corrupt and those doubtful of a
peaceful future say that if the upcoming presidential election is rigged
and yields an illegitimate leader, civil war could erupt between ethnic
groups backed by neighboring countries trying to influence
Afghanistan's future.
Unfortunately in
Afghanistan, we do not have any political unity," said Gen. Sayed
Hussain Anwari, a former governor of Kabul and Herat provinces who led
fighters during the civil war.
Speaking in
emotional, rapid-fire sentences at his home in Kabul, Anwari says that
the Taliban have a right to participate in the political process.
But
if the scenario changes and they come to power by force, there will be
groups that won't go with the Taliban and the fighting will continue,"
he said.
Ghairat Baheer offers an even
gloomier prediction. Baheer is a representative and son-in-law of
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a key civil war leader in the 1990s whose fighters
attack foreign troops today. He warns that the current Afghan government
will collapse with the international troop withdrawal and says civil
war is likely without a peace agreement.
The
realties are that the government is not sustainable," he said in a
telephone interview. "Anti-Americanism and anti-western sentiment is
increasing daily in Afghanistan and the resistance is spreading
day-by-day across the country."
Fahim Dashti
was with Ahmad Shah Massoud, the charismatic Tajik leader who commanded
the Northern Alliance of minority groups, when he was fatally wounded by
two terrorists posing as journalists two days before the Sept. 11
attacks. Dashti's face and hands were burned when one of the journalists
blew himself up as the interview began. Even now, Dashti's hands are
not strong enough to twist the cap off a bottle of water.
Despite
his experience, Dashti, who now directs the National Journalists' Union
in Afghanistan, doesn't think his country is headed toward a civil war.
"I
do share the concerns of the people, no doubt. But there are some
positive points such as the (growing) capability and the ability of the
Afghan security forces," he said in his office.
Donor
nations have pledged to continue supporting the Afghan forces, which
will avoid civil war and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a sanctuary
for international terrorists again, Dashti said. He's more worried about
the upcoming presidential race.
"There is no
one-man solution," he said, adding that a team of leaders from all
ethnic factions needs to be assembled to lead the nation forward.
Gen. Majid Rouzi, who also commanded fighters in the civil war and is now an adviser at the Afghan Interior Ministry, agrees.
Nobody
has any justification for rearming," he said, sitting cross-legged on a
rug in his home in Kabul. "The Taliban coming again? It is not
possible. A factional war is not coming."
However,
Gen. Sahki Dad Ghafel, who led 1,500 troops fighting under Hazara
commander Abdul Ali Mazari during the civil war, says civil strife is
inevitable unless a peace can be reached with the Taliban before 2014.
And he's not optimistic that the Taliban will renounce violence,
moderate their hardline ways and participate in the political process.
"Maybe
if there is a deal between America, Pakistan and the Taliban, the
Taliban might come with the tie instead of the turban," Ghafel, a
round-faced military man with a small black mustache, said snacking on
green grapes and melon in his office. "If the foreign troops leave,
there will not be a good result. I am not confident about the future.
I'm not optimistic."
Karzai has called for
national unity and has tried to reassure his people that Afghanistan
will not collapse when the troops leave.
"If
the foreigners are not here, we are nothing?" he asked sarcastically at a
news conference last week: "We were not a nation before NATO and the
Americans came?"
Karzai claims there has been a
decline in violence in areas where Afghan troops are taking over from
U.S. and NATO forces and that Afghan policemen and soldiers will be
strong enough to provide security in the future. He blames the media for
scaring Afghans into thinking they have no future once the
international coalition leaves. Those who share Karzai's optimism argue
that despite reports of drug use and unprofessionalism, Afghan security
forces - now 352,000 strong - will be capable of securing the nation by
international troops leave.
Coalition
officials claim they have battered the Taliban and that while they are
capable of staging suicide bombings and insider attacks, the insurgents
cannot defeat the Afghan forces on the battlefield. They contend that
keeping up the pressure on insurgents will push Taliban leaders to the
negotiating table and that the international community's pledge to
bankroll the Afghan army and police force in coming years will support
the Afghan government as it works to provide better governance.
The more pessimistic view is that the Afghan forces won't be up to the task.
The
joint international and Afghan force is fighting a losing battle,
Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said in a statement marking the 11th
anniversary of the start of the war. Mujahid claims the Taliban have
infiltrated the Afghan forces and are responsible for the rash of
insider attacks that have left more than 50 U.S. and NATO forces dead at
the hands of their would-be Afghan partners so far this year.
"Right now, the foreigners are in a position where they are just trying to escape," Mujahid said.
