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| President Barack Obama walks to St. John's Episcopal Church from the White House with his daughters Sasha, left, and Malia, in Washington, on Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012. |
AMES, Iowa (AP) -- President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.
While
the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt,
Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few
pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican
challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the
most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine
the winner.
While in a tight race with Obama
for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state
paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney
would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining
up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning
Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
To be sure, anything can happen in the coming days to influence the Nov. 6 election.
The
AP analysis isn't intended to predict the outcome. Rather, it's meant
to provide a snapshot of a race that has been stubbornly close in the
small number of competitive states all year. The analysis is based on
public polls and internal campaign surveys as well as spending on
television advertising, candidate visits, get-out-the-vote organizations
and interviews with dozens of Republican and Democratic strategists in
Washington and in the most contested states.
The
analysis shows that Obama probably would win with at least 271
electoral votes from 21 states, including Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and
the District of Columbia. Romney seems on track for 206 from 23 states,
including North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 and campaigned
aggressively there this year.
But Obama's team acknowledges it is the
most difficult state for him to win, and he's paid less attention to it
recently.
Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia, with a combined 61 votes at stake, could go either way.
"I'm
counting on Iowa! Iowa may be the place that decides who the next
president is!" Romney said on one of two visits to the state last week.
In Ohio last week, a hoarse Obama reminded a Cleveland audience near the
end of a six-state marathon: "I need you, Ohio. America needs you,
Ohio."
Romney is banking on what his
supporters say is late momentum. Obama is betting that his aggressive
effort to register and lock in early voters, mainly Democratic-leaning
younger and minority voters, will give him an insurmountable advantage
heading into Election Day, when more Republicans typically vote than
Democrats.
About 35 percent of voters are
expected to cast their ballots before Nov. 6, either in person or by
mail.
More than 5 million people already have voted. No votes will be
counted until Nov 6, but some states report the party affiliation of
people who have voted. Democrats have the edge in Iowa, Nevada and North
Carolina, according to state figures and data collected by the United
States Elections Project at George
Mason University. Republicans have
the early edge in Colorado.
Obama, who won in
2008 in places where Democrats had not for a generation, continues to
have several routes to electoral victory. His easiest: win Ohio, Iowa
and Wisconsin, which are leaning his way. He could keep the White House
with victories in Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada. If he loses Ohio, he could
prevail by sweeping New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and
Colorado.
Romney has fewer options. He must
carry Florida and Virginia, where Republicans are feeling good about his
standing, as well as wrest control of Ohio, and then also win Nevada,
Colorado or New Hampshire. If he loses Ohio, Romney must make up for the
state's 18 electoral votes by cutting his way through Obama-leaning
territory.
At the top of that target list are
Wisconsin, carried by Democrats in six straight presidential elections
and where Obama has the edge, and Iowa, a perennial swing-voting state.
Romney's
campaign began airing advertisements last week in Minnesota, arguing he
was staking a claim in likely Obama territory. But even GOP strategists
acknowledged the move was aimed at hitting voters in western Wisconsin
and pressuring Obama to follow suit. By Friday, Obama's campaign had
done just that, although the president has a healthy lead in both
polling and organization in Minnesota.
"We
have to keep working those other states, in case Ohio doesn't come
through," said veteran GOP presidential strategist Charlie Black, who is
advising Romney's campaign.
Ohio is a lynchpin for both candidates.
Obama
was in strong standing in the state before the three presidential
debates. But Romney's strong performance in the debates helped him gain
ground. But Republicans and Democrats alike now say that any momentum
Romney had in Ohio from those debates has run its course, and the state
gain is leaning toward Obama. New public polls show a tight race.
Operatives
in both parties point to the last debate six days ago, and Obama's
criticism of Romney's opposition to the automotive industry bailout.
They say the criticism was effective in branding Romney as out of touch
with working-class voters in a state whose manufacturing economy relies
heavily on the car and auto parts industries.
The
president started running a new TV ad in the state assailing Romney's
position on the aid. Obama's internal polling in Ohio has shown a slight
increase in support from white, working-class voters, an important part
of Ohio's largely blue-collar electorate.
"That
is a killer,'" Tad Devine, a top aide to 2004 and 2000 Democratic
nominees, said of the heat Romney is taking for his bailout position.
"And it's going to have the biggest impact in the decisive state in the
outcome of the election."
Out of necessity,
Romney is refusing to cede ground in Ohio, where no Republican has lost
and then gone on to win the presidency. He hunkered down in the state
for two days last week, and running mate Paul Ryan headlined eight
events in the state over the weekend. The impending storm that's set to
hit the East Coast led
Romney to cancel Virginia campaigning on Sunday
and join Ryan in Ohio.
In Ohio alone, Romney
and allied groups were spending nearly $9 million on television ads,
compared with Obama and his allies' $6 million, and showed no signs of
letting up in the final week.
Elsewhere, Obama
is looking to stunt any Romney inroad with suburban women, a pivotal
constituency, in Colorado and Virginia, by casting the Republican as an
extremist on abortion and hammering him on his opposition to federal
money for Planned Parenthood.
In Nevada,
Romney is banking on the support of fellow Mormons, and noting the high
unemployment and foreclosure rates, to overtake Obama. But the
president's team is appearing ever more confident of winning the state,
partly because of the backing of a booming Hispanic population.
Florida,
the biggest battleground prize with 29 electoral votes, is viewed by
both sides as a tight. Democrats acknowledge that Romney's standing has
improved because of his debate performances and could move out of reach
for Obama in the coming days.
