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| In this citizen journalism image provided by Edlib News Network, ENN, which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting, anti-Syrian regime protesters hold a banner and flash the victory sign during a demonstration in Hass town, Idlib province, northern Syria, Friday, June 14, 2013. The Syrian government on Friday dismissed U.S. charges that it used chemical weapons as "full of lies," accusing President Barack Obama of resorting to fabrications to justify his decision to arm Syrian rebels. The commander of the main rebel umbrella group welcomed the U.S. move. |
President Barack
Obama's decision to begin arming Syria's rebels deepens U.S. involvement
in a regional proxy war that is increasingly being fought along
sectarian lines, pitting Sunni against Shiite Muslims, and threatening
the stability of Syria's neighbors.
Arming the
rebels is bound to heighten U.S. tensions with Russia, a staunch ally
of Syrian President Bashar Assad. It could further escalate a brutal, if
deadlocked, civil war that has killed nearly 93,000 people and
displaced millions, with no end in sight. There are fears that Assad's
stockpile of chemical weapons, believed to be one of the world's
largest, could fall into the hands of Islamic extremist groups or that
he might unleash them if he feels cornered.
WHY NOW?
Obama's
decision marks a turning point for the U.S., which up to now had
avoided getting drawn into the conflict militarily. A key U.S. concern
had been that U.S.-supplied weapons could fall into the hands of
al-Qaida-linked militants fighting alongside the rebels.
However,
U.S. credibility was on the line after the White House said Thursday
that it has conclusive evidence that Assad used chemical weapons against
rebel fighters. Obama has said in the past such use would cross a red
line, suggesting greater U.S. intervention.
Washington's
decision comes at a time of several military setbacks for the rebels
and the growing involvement of Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, which is
fighting alongside the regime. Hezbollah's role was key in the capture
of the strategic rebel-held town of Qusair earlier this month.
WHAT WOULD THE REBELS RECEIVE?
The
full scope of the assistance authorized by the White House is still
unclear. But the administration could give the rebels a range of
weapons, including small arms, assault rifles, shoulder-fired
rocket-propelled grenades and other anti-tank missiles. Rebel commanders
say they need anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to counter the
regime's superior firepower, delivered from warplanes and armored
vehicles. But Obama's opposition to sending American troops into Syria
and concern about high-powered weapons ending up in the hands of
terrorist groups makes it less likely the U.S. will provide
sophisticated arms that would require large-scale training.
WHO IS FIGHTING?
The
regional context for the Syria conflict is the struggle for influence
between Shiite Iran on the one hand and major Sunni power Saudi Arabia
on the other, backed by smaller Gulf Arab states, such as Qatar, and
non-Arab Turkey.
Assad is part of the Iranian
camp, along with Hezbollah. At home, he draws his support largely from
Syria's minorities, including fellow Alawites, followers of an offshoot
of Shiite Islam, as well as Christians and Shiites. His other foreign
backers include Russia and China.
Most rebels
are Sunnis. The West, including the U.S., has so far backed the
political opposition and provided humanitarian and non-lethal support to
the rebels.
WHO HAS THE UPPER HAND?
Hit
by defections, regime forces have been stretched thin, a key reason why
Assad lost control over large stretches of northern and eastern Syria
early in the fighting. However, he has been able to hang on to the
capital, Damascus, and other cities, especially in the heavily populated
west of the country. Building on the successful capture of Qusair,
Hezbollah-backed regime fighters have scored a number of military
successes in recent weeks. Pro-Assad troops are now trying to dislodge
rebels from the cities of Homs and Aleppo, Syria's largest. The rebels
hope the U.S. weapons will give them new momentum.
WHEN WILL IT END?
Neither
side has been able to deliver a decisive blow since the uprising
against Assad began in March 2011 and escalated into a civil war.
Fighting could drag on for months or years.
With
Russia and Iran standing by Assad, he seems poised to cling to power
for now, even if unable to retake all of Syria. Some predict an eventual
division of Syria into regime- and rebel-held areas, with conflict
simmering for years.
A fall of the regime, a
prospect that appears distant at the moment, would not ensure an end to
the fighting. Assad's die-hard supporters might not lay down arms and
the rebels are divided between Western-backed moderates, fundamentalist
Salafis and al-Qaida loyalists who could battle for control after a
collapse of the regime.
Still, a defeat of the
regime could curb Iran's influence in the Arab world, weaken Hezbollah
in Lebanon and strengthen minority Sunnis in Shiite-dominated Lebanon
and Iraq. In one reconfiguration of regional alliances, the Palestinian
militant group Hamas last year broke away from Iran's camp over Assad's
crackdown on the rebels, fellow Sunnis.
IS THIS A SECTARIAN CONFLICT?
The
Syria conflict is whipping up sectarian fervor. Sunni-Shiite tensions
in the region have risen sharply, particularly since Hezbollah raised
its profile by fighting in Qusair. Sunni hard-liners view Hezbollah's
intervention as a declaration of war by Shiites against Sunnis, and have
called on Sunnis to fight in Syria. This could increase the flow of
foreign militants into Syria. Already several thousand foreign militants
are believed to be fighting among the rebels.
COULD THIS RAISE EAST-WEST TENSIONS?
Russia
has been a major weapons supplier to the Syrian regime. Russia said
repeatedly it would honor its contracts to deliver advanced missiles to
Syria, including S-300 air defense systems, ignoring appeals by the West
to halt shipments.
Russian officials played
down the threat of an arms race Friday. Asked if Russia could retaliate
for the U.S. decision to arm the rebels by sending the S-300s, President
Vladimir Putin's foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said the two
sides aren't competing in Syria.
The rebels,
meanwhile, could obtain weapons from other Western sources. Last month,
the European Union decided to let its arms embargo against Syria lapse,
enabling individual members to arm the rebels. Britain and France had
pushed for the measure, though they said at the time such shipments were
not imminent.
WHAT ABOUT CHEMICAL WEAPONS?
The regime's chemical weapons stockpiles are a major wild card in the conflict.
The
Obama administration says the regime carried out multiple small-scale
attacks with such weapons, killing up to 150 people. The findings
announced Thursday were aided by evidence sent to the United States by
France, which, along with Britain, has said it had determined that
Assad's government used chemical weapons.
Experts
say Assad might have been trying to terrorize rebels and civilians,
while not causing mass casualties that would trigger greater Western
military involvement.
The regime is believed
to be in control of its stockpiles for now. Israel has said it would
strike to prevent chemical weapons from reaching Hezbollah which has
fought with Israel in the past.
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE REGION?
The
fighting repeatedly has spilled into neighboring Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq,
Jordan and the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, raising fears of a
regional conflagration.
Lebanon, still scarred
by its own 15-year civil war that ended in 1990, is increasingly on
edge. Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has prompted retaliatory rocket
fire by Syrian rebels on Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.
Israeli
warplanes have struck three times at suspected Hezbollah-bound weapons
shipments in Syria, and Israeli officials threatened more strikes in the
event of future arms deliveries. Assad did not retaliate up to now, but
said he would deliver a strategic blow if the Israelis attack again.
The
conflict already has fueled a spike in sectarian warfare in Iraq as the
Shiite-led government struggles to contain its worst eruption of
violence in years amid a wave of Sunni unrest. Syrians have been killed
in Iraq and combat-hardened Iraqi fighters have been crisscrossing the
frontier.
Turkey has repeatedly struck back at
the Syrian military in response to shelling and mortar rounds that
landed on its territory. NATO has sent anti-aircraft batteries to
Turkey's border area with Syria. In May, two car bombs blamed on Syria
killed more than 50 people in a Turkish border town.
