Stratfor | Global Intelligence News & Analysis | Geopolitical News

Stratfor | Global Intelligence News & Analysis | Geopolitical News

Child soldier's tale illustrates Mali's dirty war

Child soldier's tale illustrates Mali's dirty war 

Adama Drabo, 16, stands in the police station in Sevare, some 620 kilometers (385 miles) north of Mali's capital Bamako, Friday, Jan. 25, 2013. Drabo, who said he was captured traveling without papers by Malian troops and eventually handed over to Gendarmes in Sevare, was arrested on suspicion of working for Islamic militant group MUJAO and caught trying to flee south, police said. A farmer's son from Niono, he admitted to having worked in the kitchens of a jihadist training base in Douentza for the past month. Drabo said his only motivation in joining the Islamic militant group had been to earn a wage, having struggled to find work at home, and that he was one of the youngest recruits on the base.

SEVARE, Mali (AP) -- The boy sits with his knees tucked under his chest on the concrete floor of the police station here, his adolescent face a tableau of fear. He's still garbed in the knee-length tunic he was ordered to wear by the Islamic extremist who recruited him.

It's these same clothes, styled after those worn by the Prophet Muhammad in the 7th century, which gave him away when he tried to flee earlier this week. They have now become his prison garb.

Adama Drabo is 16, and his recruitment into the ranks of a group designated as a terrorist organization, followed by his violent interrogation at the hands of the Malian army, underscores the obstacles faced by France as it tries to wash its former West African colony clean of the al-Qaida-linked fighters occupying it.

"In terms of the rules of engagement, you have to think to yourself, what will you do if a child comes up to you wearing an explosive vest? What do you do if a 12-year-old is manning a checkpoint?" says Rudolph Atallah, former director of counterterrorism for Africa at the Pentagon during the Bush administration. "It's a very difficult situation."

France, which now has around 2,500 troops on the ground, plunged headfirst into the conflict in Mali two weeks ago, after the Islamist groups that have controlled the nation's northern half since last year began an aggressive push southward. The French soldiers are equipped with night vision goggles, anti-tank mines and laser-guided bombs. However, their enemy includes the hundreds of children, some as young as 11, who have been conscripted into the rebel army.

Among those the French will have to fight are boys like Adama, the uneducated, eldest child of a poor family of rice growers, who until recently spent his days plowing fields with oxen near the village of N'Denbougou. Living just 15 miles (25 kilometers) from the central Malian town of Niono, which has become one of the frontlines in the recent war, Adama fits the profile of the types of children the Islamists have successfully recruited. His village has a single mosque, and unlike the moderate form of Islam practiced in much of Mali, the one he and his family attended preached Wahabism.

"We have observed a pattern of recruitment of child soldiers from villages that for many years have practiced a very strict form of Islam, referred to as Wahabism," says Corinne Dufka, senior researcher for West Africa at Human Rights Watch. "We estimate that hundreds of children have been recruited."

The groups allied with al-Qaida started recruiting children soon after they seized control of northern Mali last April. Rebel leaders quoted verses from the Quran which they claim describe children as the purest apprentices. Since then witnesses have described seeing children staffing checkpoints, riding in patrol vehicles, carrying out searches of cars stopped at roadblocks, as well as preparing tea and cooking food for the fighters in the towns controlled by the insurgents, says Dufka.

The United Nations children's agency said late last year that it had been able to corroborate at least 175 reported cases of child soldiers in northern Mali, bought from their impoverished parents for between $1,000 and $1,200 per child. Malian human rights officials put the total number of children recruited by the Islamists considerably higher at 1,000 - and that was before the French intervention.

Adama, who is now being held at the Sevare gendarmerie, was hired as a cook two weeks ago by Islamist fighters in Douentza, a city controlled by the Movement for Oneness and Jihad, or MUJAO. Its members have been linked to the recent terrorist attack on a natural gas plant in Algeria, which ended in the death of at least 37 hostages, according to the Algerian government.

The teenager claims he didn't know he was working for a terrorist group, even though the insurgents who ate the macaroni he cooked carried guns, wore beards and dressed in the unfamiliar Gulf-style clothes they gave him. He says he joined them only for the money they promised they would pay at the end of each month. The police holding him say he was promised around $200 a month, several times the average monthly salary here.

Adama explains that his friends in Niono said they knew people in Sevare who would give them work. So they took a Peugeot 207 taxi to reach the town.

"It was there in the town that we met some people and they hired us to cook for them," he says. "They said that at the end of each month we would get paid. ... And so we started cooking for them."

He says that even though some of the fighters in their entourage went to fight in the Niono area, he was unaware of their battle plans. The men spoke Arabic and Tamashek, a Tuareg language, which he did not understand.

One day, when he went to the corner store, the shop owner told him a war was on, he says.

"I told my friend, `Even if the month isn't over yet, we need to get out of here.' We walked to the next village, where we found an old man there, and we asked him if he could please give us some water? The old man said he couldn't give us any water, because we're rebels. We said, `We're not rebels. Give us some water.' It was then that a man on a motorcycle came by. The motorcyclist said that we are wearing the clothes of the Islamic fighters."

The boys tried to run.

The friend got away. Adama was handed over to the Malian military, which in recent days has been accused of executing dozens of suspected Islamists, including a group of six men who arrived in Sevare without identity cards. Adama may have been saved by the international outcry that followed the reported executions this week, says Atallah, putting immense diplomatic pressure on Mali's ill-trained and often incompetent army to respect human rights conventions.

"I was frightened," says Adama. "They said they were going to kill me. ... They said this several times."

During the interrogation, especially on the first day, the soldiers threatened to execute Adama if he did not tell the truth, he says. They hit him, he says, and slapped him across his face. It was only on Friday, according to Adama, that the soldiers told him they would not kill him.

"For four days, they kept me in jail with two big people," he says. "I feel somewhat reassured now, but not totally reassured. Because I am still not free."

Child soldiers have been part of the fabric of African conflicts for decades now. In Liberia's civil war more than 10 years ago, drugged 12- and 13-year-olds were famously photographed toting automatic weapons and teddy bears. However, the standoff this time is between a Western army bound by the Geneva Convention and Western values on human rights, and an enemy that includes hundreds of children. One of the most active groups in northern Mali is al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, the terror network's affiliate in Africa, which originated in Algeria. In 2008, the group released a video showing a cheerful 15-year-old in Algeria who was suffering from a terminal illness, Atallah says. The Islamists convinced the boy that the best thing he could do with what remained of his life was to die for Allah, according to Atallah, who saw the recording.

"The video shows him smiling," he says. "They taught him how to drive a van. And then they filmed the van as it left, just before he detonated himself. I wouldn't put it past them to do this again."

Egyptians riot after soccer fans sentenced to die

Egyptians riot after soccer fans sentenced to die 

UPDATES DEATH TOLL - Families and supporters of those accused of soccer violence from the Port Said soccer club react to the announcement of verdicts for 21 fans on trial in last years Port Said stadium incident which left 74 people dead, in Port Said, Egypt, Saturday, Jan. 26, 2013. Egyptian security officials say that 38 people have died in the Mediterranean city of Port Said after a judge sentenced 21 people to death in connection to one of the world's deadliest incidents of soccer violence

 

CAIRO (AP) -- Relatives and angry young men rampaged through the Egyptian city of Port Said on Saturday in assaults that killed at least 27 people following death sentences for local fans involved in the country's worst bout of soccer violence.

Unrest surrounding the second anniversary of Egypt's revolution also broke out in Cairo and other cities for a third day, with protesters clashing for hours with riot police who fired tear gas that encompassed swaths of the capital's downtown.

The divisive verdict and bloodshed highlight challenges being faced by President Mohammed Morsi, who took office seven months ago following an Egyptian revolution that ousted autocratic leader Hosni Mubarak. 

Critics say Morsi has failed to carry out promised reforms in the country's judiciary and police force, and claim little has improved in the two years after the uprising against Mubarak.

The Islamist leader, Egypt's first freely elected and civilian president, met for the first time with top generals as part of the newly formed National Defense Council to discuss the deployment of troops in two cities. The military was deployed to Port Said hours after the verdict was announced, and warned that a curfew could be declared in areas of unrest. The military was also deployed to the canal city of Suez, where protesters attacked the main security compound there after eight people were killed late Friday.

Saturday's riot in Port Said stemmed from animosity between police and die-hard soccer fans know as Ultras, who also were part of the mass uprising against Mubarak that began on Jan. 25, 2011, and at forefront of protests against the military rulers who assumed temporary power after his ouster.

It also reflected tensions after the uprising that reached into all sectors of Egyptian life, even sports.

Survivors and witnesses said Mubarak loyalists had a hand in instigating last year's attack, which began Feb. 1 after Port Said's home team Al-Masry won a match, 3-1, against Cairo's Al-Ahly. Some say "hired thugs" wearing green T-shirts posing as Al-Masry fans led the attacks.

Others say, at the very least, police were responsible for gross negligence in the Feb. 1 soccer brawl that killed 74 Al-Ahly fans.

Anger at police was evident in Port Said, home to most of the 73 men accused of involvement in the bloodshed, although the trial was held outside Cairo.

Judge Sobhi Abdel-Maguid did not give his reasoning when he handed down the sentences for 21 defendants. Executions in Egypt are usually carried out by hanging.

Verdicts for the remaining 52 defendants, including nine security officials, are scheduled to be delivered March 9. Some have been charged with murder and others with assisting the attackers. All the defendants - who were not present in the courtroom Saturday for security reasons - can appeal the verdict.

Supporters of those sentenced to death said they were being used as scapegoats. The rioters attacked the city's prison after the verdict was read live on state television to try and free the defendants. A police lieutenant and police officer were killed in the assault.

Residents also focused their anger against the government, attacking a power station, the governor's office and local courthouse. They staged a sit-in along the main road leading into the city and occupied a police station.

Security officials said a total of 27 people were killed and some 400 wounded, many by gunfire, throughout the city. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to release the information.

Victims were killed when police fired tear gas, bird shot and other live ammunition at the mob. Two soccer players who died- one from Port Said's Al-Marikh club and the other a former player of its Al-Masry club - apparently were killed on their way to do training near the prison. One of the players was shot three times, a local health official said.

Some 220 kilometers (135 miles) away in Cairo, the divisive nature of the trial was on display.

Relatives of those killed at the soccer game erupted in joy in the courtroom after the verdict was announced.

Families yelled "Allahu Akbar!" Arabic for "God is great" and pumped their fists in the air. Others held up pictures of the deceased, most of whom were young men from Cairo's poor neighborhoods. One man fainted while others hugged. The judge smacked the bench several times to try to restore calm.

Supporters of Cairo's Al-Ahly celebrated the verdict in the team's club before heading toward Interior Ministry headquarters, which manages the police, for more protests.

Lawmakers had formed a fact-finding committee that found some evidence toward collusion from authorities, but the evidence was not conclusive.

Nine of those on trial are security officials, charged with assisting the attackers for failing to search for weapons as is customary and allowing known criminals to attend the game. One was a senior officer who locked the exit designated for Al-Ahly fans. Many victims suffocated or were trampled to death in the corridor trying to escape the violence. Others were thrown off bleachers, undressed, beaten with iron bars and had the words "Port Said" carved into their skin.

Police reform researcher Karim Ennarah said the lack of a proper investigation raises the specter that some of those on trial are innocent. The state prosecutor's office, tasked with investigating the case, was long run by a Mubarak holdover.

"We still operate in a state that doesn't hold its employees, specifically in the security sector, to account," Ennarah said. "There might have been democratic elections, but it still is a very undemocratic state in terms of how police work."

The most high profile case since Egypt's uprising was that of Mubarak himself. He was found guilty of failing to stop the killing of around 900 protesters. The verdict angered people who wanted him executed on charges of ordering deadly force. He was sentenced to life in prison in what even some of his opponents argue was a verdict based on flimsy evidence aimed at appeasing an angry public.

A lawyer of one of the defendants given a death sentence Saturday said this verdict too was political.

Days before the verdict, Morsi declared the victims "martyrs of the revolution", granting families up to $15,000 in compensation.

"There is nothing to say these people did anything and we don't understand what this verdict is based on," Mohammed al-Daw told The Associated Press by telephone.

"Our situation in Port Said is very grave because kids were taken from their homes for wearing green T-shirts," he said, referring to the Al-Masry team color.

The president, once a detainee under Mubarak for his political activities with the Brotherhood, had vowed to restore security in his first 100 days in office. Instead, critics say he has waged a personal campaign against anti-Brotherhood figures rather than carry out comprehensive reform.

His Muslim Brotherhood allies blamed "misleading" media outlets for enflaming the public against the government. The main opposition bloc said it holds Morsi responsible for "the excessive use of force by the security forces against protesters."

Fans of Al-Ahly, mostly young men in their teens, promised more violence in the days leading up to the verdict if the death penalty was not handed down. Their main Facebook page had called for bloodshed.

"This was necessary," said Nour al-Sabah, whose 17-year-old son Ahmed Zakaria died in last year's melee. "Now I want to see the guys when they are executed with my own eyes, just as they saw the murder of my son."

"We are not really that happy," Mohamed Ahmed, a survivor of the attack, said. "The government helped the Ultras of Port Said by blocking the gates of the stadium until people suffocated to death."

Meanwhile, Port Said resident and activist Rasha Hammouda said the city wants those involved in killings to be brought to justice.

"We have no problem with execution of those who killed, but bring everyone who is involved," she said.

Syrian forces escalate offensive in Homs

Syrian forces escalate offensive in Homs 

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah speaks via a video link, during a ceremony to mark Islam's Prophet Muhammad's birth in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Jan. 25, 2013. Nasrallah, a staunch ally of the Syrian regime, said those who had dreamed about "dramatic changes" taking place in Syria should let go of their dreams. He said all military, political and international indications showed that President Bashar Assad's regime cannot be defeated.

 

BEIRUT (AP) -- Syria's army unleashed a barrage of rocket and artillery fire on rebel-held areas in a central province Friday as part of a widening offensive against fighters seeking to oust President Bashar Assad. At least 140 people were killed in fighting nationwide, according to activist groups.

The United Nations said a record number of Syrians streamed into Jordan this month, doubling the population of the kingdom's already-cramped refugee camp to 65,000. Over 30,000 people arrived in Zaatari in January - 6,000 in the past two days alone, the U.N. said.

The newcomers are mostly families, women, children and elderly who fled from southern Syria, said Melissa Fleming, spokeswoman for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. She said the UNHCR was working with the Jordanian government to open a second major camp nearby by the end of this month.

Many of the new arrivals at Zaatari are from the southern town of Daraa, where the uprising against Assad first erupted nearly two years ago, the Britain-based Save the Children said Friday.

Five buses, crammed with "frightened and exhausted people who fled with what little they could carry," pull up every hour at the camp, said Saba al-Mobasat, an aid worker with Save the Children.

The exodus reflected the latest spike in violence in Syria's civil war. The conflict began in March 2011 after a peaceful uprising against Assad, inspired by the Arab Spring wave of revolutions that toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, turned violent.

Despite significant rebel advances on the battlefield, the opposition remains outgunned by government forces and has been unable to break a stalemate on the ground.

In Lebanon, the leader of the Syria-backed Lebanese Hezbollah group, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, said Friday in a speech that those who dream about "dramatic changes" taking place in Syria should let go of their fantasies.

"Particularly those who were expecting the fall of Damascus," he told supporters, adding that military, political and international developments point to the futility of such dreams.

Activists said the army recently brought in military reinforcements to the central province of Homs and launched a renewed offensive aimed at retaking patches of territory that have been held by rebels for months.

An amateur video posted online by activists showed rockets slamming into buildings in the rebel-held town of Rastan, just north of the provincial capital, Homs. Heavy gunfire could be heard in the background.

Another video showed thick black and gray smoke rising from a building in the besieged city. "The city of Homs is burning ... day and night, the shelling of Homs doesn't stop," the narrator is heard saying.

Troops also battled rebels around Damascus in an effort to dislodge opposition fighters who have set up enclaves in surrounding towns and villages. The troops fired artillery shells Friday at several districts, including Zabadani and Daraya, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Another activist group, the Local Coordination Committees, said regime warplanes carried out airstrikes on the suburb of Douma, the largest patch of rebel-held ground near Damascus.

Other video showed devastation in the Damascus neighborhood of Arbeen, following what activists said were two airstrikes there. A bleeding, wounded man can be seen being helped out of the rubble of the destroyed building. The videos appeared consistent with Associated Press reporting on the fighting.

Last month, the UNHCR said it needed $1 billion to aid Syrians in the Mideast, and that half of that money was required to help refugees in Jordan.

The agency says 597,240 refugees have registered or are awaiting registration with the UNHCR in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. Some countries have higher estimates, noting many Syrians have found accommodations without registering, relying on their own resources and savings.

In Turkey, U.S. officials announced that the United States was providing an additional $10 million in assistance to help supply flour to bakeries in the Aleppo region.

Nancy Lindborg, assistant administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development, said the aid would help provide daily bread for about 210,000 people for the next five months.

She said that with the new assistance, the United States was providing a total of $220 million to help Syrians.

"Too many people - an unconscionable number of Syrians - are not able to get daily bread, in addition to other supplies," Lindborg told journalists after a visit to a Syrian refugee camp near Turkey's border with Syria.

In a rare gesture, Syria's Interior Ministry called on those who fled the country during the civil war to return, including regime opponents. It said the government will help hundreds of thousands of citizens return whether they left "legally or illegally."

Syrian opposition figures abroad who want to take part in reconciliation talks will also be allowed back, according to a ministry statement carried late Thursday by the state SANA news agency.

If they "have the desire to participate in the national dialogue, they would be allowed to enter Syria," it said.

The proposed talks are part of Assad's initiative to end the conflict that started as peaceful protests in March 2011 but turned into a civil war. Tens of thousands of activists, their family members and opposition supporters remain jailed by the regime, according to international activist groups.

Opposition leaders repeatedly have rejected any talks that include Assad, insisting he must step down. The international community backs that demand, but Assad has clung to power, vowing to crush the armed opposition.

More than 60,000 people have been killed since the conflict began, according to the U.N.

Activists also said two cars packed with explosives blew up near a military intelligence building in the Syrian-controlled part of the Golan Heights, killing eight. Most of the dead were members of the Syrian military, the Observatory said.

The Syrian government had no comment on the attacks, which occurred Thursday night in the town of Quneitra, and nobody claimed responsibility for them.

Car bombs and suicide attacks targeting Syrian troops and government institutions have been the hallmark of Islamic militants fighting in Syria alongside rebels trying to topple Assad.

Quneitra is on the cease-fire line between Syria and Israel, which controls most of the Golan Heights after capturing the strategic territory from Syria in the 1967 war.

Images suggest NKorea ready for nuke test

Images suggest NKorea ready for nuke test 

  

This Dec. 24, 2012 satellite image provided by GeoEye shows North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test facility. This and other recent satellite photos show North Korea could be almost ready to carry out its threat to conduct a nuclear test, a U.S. research institute said Friday, Jan. 25, 2013. The images of the Punggye-ri site where nuclear tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009 reveal that over the past month roads have been kept clear of snow and that North Koreans may be sealing the tunnel into a mountainside where a nuclear device would be detonated. But it remains difficult to discern North Korea's true intentions as a test would be conducted underground. The analysis was provided to The Associated Press by 38 North, the website of U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Recent satellite photos show North Korea could be almost ready to carry out its threat to conduct a nuclear test, a U.S. research institute said Friday.

The images of the Punggye-ri site, where nuclear tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009, reveal that over the past month, roads have been kept clear of snow and that North Koreans may have been sealing the tunnel into a mountainside where a nuclear device would be detonated.

But it remains difficult to discern North Korea's true intentions, as a test would be conducted underground.

The analysis was provided to The Associated Press by 38 North, the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. The latest image was taken Wednesday.

North Korea's powerful National Defense Commission declared its plans Thursday after the U.N. Security Council tightened sanctions in response to a December long-range rocket launch. It described the plans as part of a "new phase" of combat with the United States, which retains 28,000 troops in South Korea and which it blames for leading the U.N. bid to punish Pyongyang.

The North said a nuclear test was part of "upcoming" action but did not say exactly when or where it would take place.

38 North concludes that the Punggye-ri site, in the country's northeast, "appears to continue to be at a state of readiness that would allow the North to move forward with a test in a few weeks or less once the leadership in Pyongyang gives the order."

South Korean media have cited intelligence officials as saying technical preparations appear complete, and the North could be ready to test within days of making a decision to do so.

U.S. officials confirmed Friday that some trucks have been seen moving around the site. One official said the U.S. is not ruling out that the test could happen in the near future.

But the officials cautioned that, as in previous tests, because it would be done underground, the U.S. may not know much before it actually happens. Officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss intelligence matters publicly.

In 2006, North Korea detonated a nuclear device just six days after it announced its plans to do so, and in 2009, 26 days after the announcement. Both tests came weeks after the U.N. Security Council had condemned it for long-range rocket launches.

"While the test site appears to continue to be at a high state of readiness, it's anyone's guess when a detonation might occur. The North Koreans may do it tomorrow, some other day or they may decide to wait until a meaningful date like Kim Jong Il's birthday on Feb. 16," said Joel Wit, a former U.S. State Department official and the editor of 38 North.

Anniversaries related to members of North Korea's ruling dynasty, such as former leader Kim Jong Il, who died in December 2011, are marked with great fanfare in the authoritarian nation.

In its assessment of the preparations at Punggye-ri, 38 North noted that there was considerable snowfall there in November 2012. It said subsequent clearing operations as well as tracks in the snow in the remote area reveal activity at buildings and on roads near the possible test tunnel.

A satellite image taken Jan. 4 shows 30 or more personnel, possibly soldiers or security guards, in formation in the yard of the main administrative buildings at the site.

A Dec. 24 image shows a pile of material in the same yard. Its purpose is uncertain, but it could be intended for sealing the tunnel. By the time of Wednesday's photo, the pile had shrunk, which could indicate operations have begun to seal the tunnel, according to the analysis.

BOOK NOW! CROSSING BORDERS TOUR 2013!

BOOK NOW! CROSSING BORDERS TOUR 2013!

Radio Smart Talk: Representing the Race author Kenneth W. Mack | witf.org

Radio Smart Talk: Representing the Race author Kenneth W. Mack | witf.org

Kerry tackles questions on Iran, Syria, Hagel

Kerry tackles questions on Iran, Syria, Hagel 

Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., sits before the committee he has served on for 28 years and led for the past four as he seeks confirmation as U.S. secretary of state, Thursday, Jan. 24, 2013, on Capitol Hill in Washington. Kerry, who is likely to face friendly questioning on a smooth path to approval, is President Barack Obama's choice to succeed Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton who is stepping down after four years as America's top diplomat.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sen. John Kerry, President Barack Obama's nominee for secretary of state, collected pledges of support Thursday and testified at his confirmation hearing that U.S. foreign policy should be defined by a helping hand as well as military strength.

The Massachusetts Democrat discussed Iran, Syria, climate change and a variety of issues with members of the Foreign Relations Committee at a hearing that recalled an unusual American life - son of a diplomat, Navy lieutenant who volunteered for Vietnam, anti-war protester, five-term senator, unsuccessful nominee for president, and Obama's unofficial envoy.

The nearly four-hour hearing also provided an odd juxtaposition as Kerry, a member of the panel for 28 years and its chairman for the last four, sat alone in the witness chair. At one point, Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., the incoming chairman who presided, mistakenly referred to Kerry as "Mr. Secretary."

The current secretary, Hillary Rodham Clinton, introduced Kerry, calling him "the right choice." She is stepping down after four years.

The committee is expected to approve Kerry's nomination early next week, and a full Senate vote could occur before the month is out.

"American foreign policy is not defined by drones and deployments alone," Kerry said in outlining his views. 

"We cannot allow the extraordinary good we do to save and change lives to be eclipsed entirely by the role we have had to play since Sept. 11, a role that was thrust upon us."

Kerry spoke out strongly for dealing with climate change, providing food and energy security and humanitarian assistance. He also spoke of robust foreign aid, but he insisted that the country must get its fiscal house in order to lead in the world.

"More than ever, foreign policy is economic policy," said Kerry, who described himself as a "recovering member of the supercommittee." That bipartisan panel failed in 2011 in its mandate to come up with a deficit-cutting plan.

Faced with Iran's nuclear program, Kerry said the United State will do what it must to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but he also signaled that diplomacy remains a viable option.

"I repeat here today: Our policy is not containment. It is prevention, and the clock is ticking on our efforts to secure responsible compliance," Kerry said.

The senator said he was hopeful that the U.S. and other nations could make progress on the diplomatic front, but that Tehran needs to relent and agree to intrusive inspections.

"If their program is peaceful, they can prove it," he said.

In an unexpected exchange, Kerry found himself defending Obama's pick of Republican Chuck Hagel to be the next defense secretary against GOP criticism.

Sen. Bob Corker, the senior Republican on the panel, expressed concerns about Hagel's support for an 80 percent reduction of U.S. nuclear weapons, a major issue for the Tennessee lawmaker and his home state. The Y-12 nuclear facility is located near Oak Ridge, Tenn., and any cuts or delays in modernization to the nuclear arsenal would have an impact on local jobs.

"I know Chuck Hagel. And I think he is a strong, patriotic former senator, and he will be a strong secretary of defense," Kerry said.

The Massachusetts senator urged lawmakers to be realistic, arguing that an 80 percent cut is an aspiration that would be unlikely in the current climate.

On Syria, Kerry was asked about his outreach to President Bashar Assad, now an international pariah after months of civil war and unending violence against his citizens.

Kerry said there was a moment where Syria reached out to the West but that the moment has long passed.

"History caught up to us. That never happened. And it's now moot, because he has made a set of judgments that are inexcusable, that are reprehensible, and I think is not long for remaining as the head of state in Syria," the senator said. "I think the time is ticking."

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a fierce critic of Obama's policy on Syria, said the status quo is unacceptable with the United Nations estimating that 60,000 have been killed and the heavy influx of refugees in Jordan and Turkey.

After a recent visit to the refugee camps, McCain warned that Syrians frustrated with the U.S. response will be a recruitment target for extremists.

"We can do a lot more without putting American boots on the ground," McCain said. "Otherwise, we will be judged harshly by history."

Kerry said it was imperative to continue discussions with Russia and others in dealing with Syria but that "I don't have optimism."

Menendez noted that Kerry, if confirmed, would be the first senator on the panel in a century to ascend to the Cabinet post. President William McKinley appointed Ohio Sen. John Sherman secretary of state.

The job of the nation's top diplomat would be the realization of a dream for the 69-year-old Kerry, whom Obama passed over in 2008 when he chose Clinton. When Joe Biden became vice president, Kerry replaced the former Delaware senator as chairman of the committee.

Obama nominated Kerry after Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, removed her name from consideration following criticism from Republicans over her initial comments about the attacks on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

Corker told Kerry, "You've almost lived your entire life for this moment."

The Vietnam War, a long, bitter conflict that took its toll on a generation of draft-age American men, played a prominent role at the hearing.

In his testimony, Kerry alluded to his controversial moment before the committee some 42 years ago, when the decorated Vietnam veteran testified about his opposition to the war and famously asked, "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?"

"Today I can't help but recognize that the world itself then was in many ways simpler, divided as it was along bi-polar, Cold War antagonisms," Kerry said. "Today's world is more complicated than anything we have experienced."

McCain, who also introduced Kerry, said their friendship took root with their work on a committee seeking to resolve the status of POWs and missing in action from Vietnam as well as efforts to ensure normal U.S. relations with Vietnam during President Bill Clinton's administration.

"Helping to establish a relationship with Vietnam that serves American interests and values, rather than one that remained mired in mutual resentment and bitterness, is one of my proudest accomplishments as a senator, and I expect it is one of John's as well," McCain said.

The hearing is the first of three for Obama's national security nominees, and the least controversial. Hagel will face tough questions about his past statements on Israel, Iran, nuclear weapons and defense spending at his confirmation hearing next Thursday before the Senate Armed Services Committee. John Brennan, the president's choice for CIA director, will be quizzed about White House national security leaks and the use of unmanned drones at his hearing next month.

Women in combat: Good to go if they meet standards

Women in combat: Good to go if they meet standards 

Army Lt. Col. Tamatha Patterson, of Huntingdon, Tenn., waits for Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to hand her the memorandum he has just signed ending the 1994 ban on women serving in combat, Thursday, Jan. 24, 2013, during a news conference at the Pentagon.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Women in the military must have the same opportunities as men to take on grueling and dangerous combat jobs, whether loading 50-pound artillery shells or joining commando raids to take out terrorists, defense leaders declared Thursday as they ordered a quarter-million positions open to service members regardless of gender.

As Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, signed an order wiping away generations of limits on women fighting for their country, the military services said they would begin a sweeping review of the physical requirements. At the same time they acknowledged that women have been fighting and dying in Iraq and Afghanistan for more than a decade.

Women make up about 14 percent of the 1.4 million active U.S. military personnel. More than 280,000 women have been sent to Iraq, Afghanistan or neighboring nations in support of the wars. Of the more than 6,600 U.S. service members who have been killed, 152 have been women.

The leaders said no physical standards will be lowered just to send more women closer to the battlefront.

"I fundamentally believe that our military is more effective when success is based solely on ability and qualifications and on performance," Panetta said at a Pentagon news conference.

"Not everyone is going to be able to be a combat soldier. But everyone is entitled to a chance."

It won't happen quickly or easily. But in the end, he said, the U.S. military and America will be stronger for it.

Dempsey did not rule out women serving even as members of elite special operations forces, including the Army's Delta Force and the Navy's SEALs, whose members killed 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden.

Dempsey said that because of the particularly punishing physical standards and training required for those teams, it might be years before they include women.

But he added: "I think we all believe that there will be women who can meet those standards."

Recent surveys and experiences suggest the transition may not always be easy. When the Marine Corps sought women to go through its tough infantry course last year, two volunteered, and both failed to complete the course. And there may not be a wide clamoring from women for the more intense, dangerous and difficult jobs, including some infantry and commando positions.

Representatives of the military services said they will look at each job and military specialty that is currently closed to women and examine the requirements that troops must meet. In some cases - because of equipment upgrades, new technology and automation - the requirements may change, but in no case will they lower the standards in order to allow women to qualify.

As an example, a loader on a tank crew must be able to lift a 50-pound, two-foot-long artillery shell, spin 180 degrees and load it into a tank's cannon. Because of space constraints in the tank, it requires a great deal of upper body strength to hoist the shell.

Troops asked about the change said they just want comrades who can do the job.

"This gives us more people to work with," said Sgt. Jeremy Grayson, assigned to field infantry at Fort Bliss, Texas. "But they would have to be able to do the physical stuff that men do. Like in some jobs in infantry you're out there for a long time, or in artillery there is heavy work. And they have to be able to pull their own weight."

As a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point two years before women were admitted, Dempsey said he has seen the changes over time.

In 2003, when he went to Baghdad as commander of the 1st Armored Division, Dempsey recalled that he jumped into a Humvee on his first foray out of the forward operating base.

"I slapped the turret gunner on the leg and I said, `Who are you?' And she leaned down and said, `I'm Amanda.'"

"And it's from that point on that I realized something had changed, and it was time to do something about it."

But Dempsey cautioned that no one knows where future conflicts will take place. That's why the military needs time, he said, to review and possibly revise standards for combat jobs. The historic change overturns a 1994 rule prohibiting women from being assigned to thousands of front-line artillery, infantry, armor, special operations and pararescue jobs.

The Navy also announced that it is opening jobs for female sailors on smaller attack submarines - ships that had traditionally been closed to women largely due to privacy concerns in extremely close quarters.

There long has been opposition to putting women in combat, based on questions of whether they have the necessary strength and stamina for certain jobs, or whether their presence might hurt unit cohesion. But the Pentagon's announcement was largely hailed by lawmakers and military groups. There were only a few offering dissenting views.

Spc. Jean Sardonas, who works as a lab technician at a hospital at Fort Bliss in Texas, said she considered joining an Army team that faces combat situations. But since she's had children, she said her perspective had changed.

"If you see the enemy, well, that's the enemy, but now if you see a kid with a gun you're going to think twice" about shooting him, she said.

Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, who will be the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he is concerned about the possible impact of completely ending the ban, adding that he suspects legislation may be needed to stop changes that would be detrimental.

Under the new memo, military service chiefs will have until May 15 to develop plans for allowing women to seek the combat positions. Some jobs may open as soon as this year, while assessments for others, such as special operations forces, may take longer.

The services will have until January 2016 to argue that some positions should remain closed to women.

Thursday's move fits into the broad agenda President Barack Obama previewed for his second term during Monday's inaugural address, which focused in particular on issues of equality. It also comes on the heels of a presidential election in which Obama won the majority of female voters following a campaign that focused heavily on women's issues, though not women in combat specifically.

The change also comes as Panetta wraps up his tenure as defense secretary. The order expands the department's action of nearly a year ago to open about 14,500 combat positions to women, nearly all of them in the Army.

Under the 1994 Pentagon policy, women were prohibited from being assigned to ground combat units below the brigade level. A brigade is roughly 3,500 troops split into several battalions of about 800 soldiers each. Historically, brigades were based farther from the front lines, and they often included top command and support staff.

The necessities of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, however, propelled women into jobs as medics, military police and intelligence officers that were sometimes attached - but not formally assigned - to battalions. So while a woman couldn't be assigned as an infantryman in a battalion going out on patrol, she could fly a helicopter supporting the unit, or move in to provide medical aid if troops were injured.

Dempsey suggested that eliminating the ban on women in some combat roles could help with the ongoing sexual assault and harassment problems in the military.

"When you have one part of the population that is designated as warriors and another part that's designated as something else, I think that disparity begins to establish a psychology that in some cases led to that environment." said Dempsey. "I have to believe, the more we can treat people equally, the more likely they are to treat each other equally."

Harrisburg mayoral candidate Lewis Butts Jr. has history of driving on a suspended license | PennLive.com

Harrisburg mayoral candidate Lewis Butts Jr. has history of driving on a suspended license | PennLive.com

Pennsylvania charter schools fare poorly under different method of measuring performance | PennLive.com

Pennsylvania charter schools fare poorly under different method of measuring performance | PennLive.com

AP IMPACT: Recession, tech kill middle-class jobs

AP IMPACT: Recession, tech kill middle-class jobs 

FILE - In this Wednesday, June, 15, 2011, file photo, job seekers wait in a line at a job fair in Southfield, Mich. In the United States, half of the 7.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession were paid middle-class wages, ranging from $37,000 to $68,000. But only 2 percent of the 3.4 million jobs gained since the recession are mid-pay.

 

NEW YORK (AP) -- Five years after the start of the Great Recession, the toll is terrifyingly clear: Millions of middle-class jobs have been lost in developed countries the world over.

And the situation is even worse than it appears.

Most of the jobs will never return, and millions more are likely to vanish as well, say experts who study the labor market. What's more, these jobs aren't just being lost to China and other developing countries, and they aren't just factory work. Increasingly, jobs are disappearing in the service sector, home to two-thirds of all workers.

They're being obliterated by technology.

Year after year, the software that runs computers and an array of other machines and devices becomes more sophisticated and powerful and capable of doing more efficiently tasks that humans have always done. For decades, science fiction warned of a future when we would be architects of our own obsolescence, replaced by our machines; an Associated Press analysis finds that the future has arrived.

---

EDITOR'S NOTE: First in a three-part series on the loss of middle-class jobs in the wake of the Great Recession, and the role of technology.

---

"The jobs that are going away aren't coming back," says Andrew McAfee, principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-author of "Race Against the Machine." `'I have never seen a period where computers demonstrated as many skills and abilities as they have over the past seven years."

The global economy is being reshaped by machines that generate and analyze vast amounts of data; by devices such as smartphones and tablet computers that let people work just about anywhere, even when they're on the move; by smarter, nimbler robots; and by services that let businesses rent computing power when they need it, instead of installing expensive equipment and hiring IT staffs to run it. Whole employment categories, from secretaries to travel agents, are starting to disappear.

"There's no sector of the economy that's going to get a pass," says Martin Ford, who runs a software company and wrote "The Lights in the Tunnel," a book predicting widespread job losses. "It's everywhere."

The numbers startle even labor economists. In the United States, half the 7.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession were in industries that pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000. But only 2 percent of the 3.5 million jobs gained since the recession ended in June 2009 are in midpay industries. Nearly 70 percent are in low-pay industries, 29 percent in industries that pay well.

In the 17 European countries that use the euro as their currency, the numbers are even worse. Almost 4.3 million low-pay jobs have been gained since mid-2009, but the loss of midpay jobs has never stopped. A total of 7.6 million disappeared from January 2008 through last June.

Experts warn that this "hollowing out" of the middle-class workforce is far from over. They predict the loss of millions more jobs as technology becomes even more sophisticated and reaches deeper into our lives. Maarten Goos, an economist at the University of Leuven in Belgium, says Europe could double its middle-class job losses.

Some occupations are beneficiaries of the march of technology, such as software engineers and app designers for smartphones and tablet computers. Overall, though, technology is eliminating far more jobs than it is creating.

To understand the impact technology is having on middle-class jobs in developed countries, the AP analyzed employment data from 20 countries; tracked changes in hiring by industry, pay and task; compared job losses and gains during recessions and expansions over the past four decades; and interviewed economists, technology experts, robot manufacturers, software developers, entrepreneurs and people in the labor force who ranged from CEOs to the unemployed.

The AP's key findings:

-For more than three decades, technology has reduced the number of jobs in manufacturing. Robots and other machines controlled by computer programs work faster and make fewer mistakes than humans. Now, that same efficiency is being unleashed in the service economy, which employs more than two-thirds of the workforce in developed countries. Technology is eliminating jobs in office buildings, retail establishments and other businesses consumers deal with every day.

-Technology is being adopted by every kind of organization that employs people. It's replacing workers in large corporations and small businesses, established companies and start-ups. It's being used by schools, colleges and universities; hospitals and other medical facilities; nonprofit organizations and the military.

-The most vulnerable workers are doing repetitive tasks that programmers can write software for - an accountant checking a list of numbers, an office manager filing forms, a paralegal reviewing documents for key words to help in a case. As software becomes even more sophisticated, victims are expected to include those who juggle tasks, such as supervisors and managers - workers who thought they were protected by a college degree.

-Thanks to technology, companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index reported one-third more profit the past year than they earned the year before the Great Recession. They've also expanded their businesses, but total employment, at 21.1 million, has declined by a half-million.

-Start-ups account for much of the job growth in developed economies, but software is allowing entrepreneurs to launch businesses with a third fewer employees than in the 1990s. There is less need for administrative support and back-office jobs that handle accounting, payroll and benefits.

-It's becoming a self-serve world. Instead of relying on someone else in the workplace or our personal lives, we use technology to do tasks ourselves. Some find this frustrating; others like the feeling of control. Either way, this trend will only grow as software permeates our lives.

-Technology is replacing workers in developed countries regardless of their politics, policies and laws. Union rules and labor laws may slow the dismissal of employees, but no country is attempting to prohibit organizations from using technology that allows them to operate more efficiently - and with fewer employees.

Some analysts reject the idea that technology has been a big job killer. They note that the collapse of the housing market in the U.S., Ireland, Spain and other countries and the ensuing global recession wiped out millions of middle-class construction and factory jobs. In their view, governments could bring many of the jobs back if they would put aside worries about their heavy debts and spend more. Others note that jobs continue to be lost to China, India and other countries in the developing world.

But to the extent technology has played a role, it raises the specter of high unemployment even after economic growth accelerates. Some economists say millions of middle-class workers must be retrained to do other jobs if they hope to get work again. Others are more hopeful. They note that technological change over the centuries eventually has created more jobs than it destroyed, though the wait can be long and painful.

A common refrain: The developed world may face years of high middle-class unemployment, social discord, divisive politics, falling living standards and dashed hopes.

---

In the U.S., the economic recovery that started in June 2009 has been called the third straight "jobless recovery."

But that's a misnomer. The jobs came back after the first two.

Most recessions since World War II were followed by a surge in new jobs as consumers started spending again and companies hired to meet the new demand. In the months after recessions ended in 1991 and 2001, there was no familiar snap-back, but all the jobs had returned in less than three years.

But 42 months after the Great Recession ended, the U.S. has gained only 3.5 million, or 47 percent, of the 7.5 million jobs that were lost. The 17 countries that use the euro had 3.5 million fewer jobs last June than in December 2007.

This has truly been a jobless recovery, and the lack of midpay jobs is almost entirely to blame.

Fifty percent of the U.S. jobs lost were in midpay industries, but Moody's Analytics, a research firm, says just 2 percent of the 3.5 million jobs gained are in that category. After the four previous recessions, at least 30 percent of jobs created - and as many as 46 percent - were in midpay industries.

Other studies that group jobs differently show a similar drop in middle-class work.

Some of the most startling studies have focused on midskill, midpay jobs that require tasks that follow well-defined procedures and are repeated throughout the day. Think travel agents, salespeople in stores, office assistants and back-office workers like benefits managers and payroll clerks, as well as machine operators and other factory jobs. An August 2012 paper by economists Henry Siu of the University of British Columbia and Nir Jaimovich of Duke University found these kinds of jobs comprise fewer than half of all jobs, yet accounted for nine of 10 of all losses in the Great Recession. And they have kept disappearing in the economic recovery.

Webb Wheel Products makes parts for truck brakes, which involves plenty of repetitive work. Its newest employee is the Doosan V550M, and it's a marvel. It can spin a 130-pound brake drum like a child's top, smooth its metal surface, then drill holes - all without missing a beat. And it doesn't take vacations or "complain about anything," says Dwayne Ricketts, president of the Cullman, Ala., company.

Thanks to computerized machines, Webb Wheel hasn't added a factory worker in three years, though it's making 300,000 more drums annually, a 25 percent increase.

"Everyone is waiting for the unemployment rate to drop, but I don't know if it will much," Ricketts says. "Companies in the recession learned to be more efficient, and they're not going to go back."

In Europe, companies couldn't go back even if they wanted to. The 17 countries that use the euro slipped into another recession 14 months ago, in November 2011. The current unemployment rate is a record 11.8 percent.

European companies had been using technology to replace midpay workers for years, and now that has accelerated.

"The recessions have amplified the trend," says Goos, the Belgian economist. "New jobs are being created, but not the middle-pay ones."

In Canada, a 2011 study by economists at the University of British Columbia and York University in Toronto found a similar pattern of middle-class losses, though they were working with older data. In the 15 years through 2006, the share of total jobs held by many midpay, midskill occupations shrank. The share held by foremen fell 37 percent, workers in administrative and senior clerical roles fell 18 percent and those in sales and service fell 12 percent.

In Japan, a 2009 report from Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo documented a "substantial" drop in midpay, midskill jobs in the five years through 2005, and linked it to technology.

Developing economies have been spared the technological onslaught - for now. Countries like Brazil and China are still growing middle-class jobs because they're shifting from export-driven to consumer-based economies. But even they are beginning to use more machines in manufacturing. The cheap labor they relied on to make goods from apparel to electronics is no longer so cheap as their living standards rise.

One example is Sunbird Engineering, a Hong Kong firm that makes mirror frames for heavy trucks at a factory in southern China. Salaries at its plant in Dongguan have nearly tripled from $80 a month in 2005 to $225 today. "Automation is the obvious next step," CEO Bill Pike says.

Sunbird is installing robotic arms that drill screws into a mirror assembly, work now done by hand. The machinery will allow the company to eliminate two positions on a 13-person assembly line. Pike hopes that additional automation will allow the company to reduce another five or six jobs from the line.

"By automating, we can outlive the labor cost increases inevitable in China," Pike says. "Those who automate in China will win the battle of increased costs."

Foxconn Technology Group, which assembles iPhones at factories in China, unveiled plans in 2011 to install one million robots over three years.

A recent headline in the China Daily newspaper: "Chinese robot wars set to erupt."

---

Candidates for U.S. president last year never tired of telling Americans how jobs were being shipped overseas. China, with its vast army of cheaper labor and low-value currency, was easy to blame.

But most jobs cut in the U.S. and Europe weren't moved. No one got them. They vanished. And the villain in this story - a clever software engineer working in Silicon Valley or the high-tech hub around Heidelberg, Germany - isn't so easy to hate.

"It doesn't have political appeal to say the reason we have a problem is we're so successful in technology," says Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist at Columbia University. "There's no enemy there."

Unless you count family and friends and the person staring at you in the mirror. The uncomfortable truth is technology is killing jobs with the help of ordinary consumers by enabling them to quickly do tasks that workers used to do full time, for salaries.

Use a self-checkout lane at the supermarket or drugstore? A worker behind a cash register used to do that.

Buy clothes without visiting a store? You've taken work from a salesman.

Click "accept" in an email invitation to attend a meeting? You've pushed an office assistant closer to unemployment.

Book your vacation using an online program? You've helped lay off a travel agent. Perhaps at American Express Co., which announced this month that it plans to cut 5,400 jobs, mainly in its travel business, as more of its customers shift to online portals to plan trips.

Software is picking out worrisome blots in medical scans, running trains without conductors, driving cars without drivers, spotting profits in stocks trades in milliseconds, analyzing Twitter traffic to tell where to sell certain snacks, sifting through documents for evidence in court cases, recording power usage beamed from digital utility meters at millions of homes, and sorting returned library books.

Technology gives rise to "cheaper products and cool services," says David Autor, an economist at MIT, one of the first to document tech's role in cutting jobs. "But if you lose your job, that is slim compensation."

Even the most commonplace technologies - take, say, email - are making it tough for workers to get jobs, including ones with MBAs, like Roshanne Redmond, a former project manager at a commercial real estate developer.

"I used to get on the phone, talk to a secretary and coordinate calendars," Redmond says. "Now, things are done by computer."

Technology is used by companies to run leaner and smarter in good times and bad, but never more than in bad. In a recession, sales fall and companies cut jobs to save money. Then they turn to technology to do tasks people used to do. And that's when it hits them: They realize they don't have to re-hire the humans when business improves, or at least not as many.

The Hackett Group, a consultant on back-office jobs, estimates 2 million of them in finance, human resources, information technology and procurement have disappeared in the U.S. and Europe since the Great Recession. It pins the blame for more than half of the losses on technology. These are jobs that used to fill cubicles at almost every company - clerks paying bills and ordering supplies, benefits managers filing health-care forms and IT experts helping with computer crashes.

"The effect of (technology) on white-collar jobs is huge, but it's not obvious," says MIT's McAfee. Companies "don't put out a press release saying we're not hiring again because of machines."

---

What hope is there for the future?

Historically, new companies and new industries have been the incubator of new jobs. Start-up companies no more than five years old are big sources of new jobs in developed economies. In the U.S., they accounted for 99 percent of new private sector jobs in 2005, according to a study by the University of Maryland's John Haltiwanger and two other economists.

But even these companies are hiring fewer people. The average new business employed 4.7 workers when it opened its doors in 2011, down from 7.6 in the 1990s, according to a Labor Department study released last March.

Technology is probably to blame, wrote the report's authors, Eleanor Choi and James Spletzer. Entrepreneurs no longer need people to do clerical and administrative tasks to help them get their businesses off the ground.

In the old days - say, 10 years ago - "you'd need an assistant pretty early to coordinate everything - or you'd pay a huge opportunity cost for the entrepreneur or the president to set up a meeting," says Jeff Connally, 

CEO of CMIT Solutions, a technology consultancy to small businesses.

Now technology means "you can look at your calendar and everybody else's calendar and - bing! - you've set up a meeting." So no assistant gets hired.

Entrepreneur Andrew Schrage started the financial advice website Money Crashers in 2009 with a partner and one freelance writer. The bare-bones start-up was only possible, Schrage says, because of technology that allowed the company to get online help with accounting and payroll and other support functions without hiring staff.

"Had I not had access to cloud computing and outsourcing, I estimate that I would have needed 5-10 employees to begin this venture," Schrage says. "I doubt I would have been able to launch my business."

Technological innovations have been throwing people out of jobs for centuries. But they eventually created more work, and greater wealth, than they destroyed. Ford, the author and software engineer, thinks there is reason to believe that this time will be different. He sees virtually no end to the inroads of computers into the workplace. Eventually, he says, software will threaten the livelihoods of doctors, lawyers and other highly skilled professionals.

Many economists are encouraged by history and think the gains eventually will outweigh the losses. But even they have doubts.

"What's different this time is that digital technologies show up in every corner of the economy," says McAfee, a self-described "digital optimist." `'Your tablet (computer) is just two or three years old, and it's already taken over our lives."

Peter Lindert, an economist at the University of California, Davis, says the computer is more destructive than innovations in the Industrial Revolution because the pace at which it is upending industries makes it hard for people to adapt.

Occupations that provided middle-class lifestyles for generations can disappear in a few years. Utility meter readers are just one example. As power companies began installing so-called smart readers outside homes, the number of meter readers in the U.S. plunged from 56,000 in 2001 to 36,000 in 2010, according to the Labor Department.

In 10 years? That number is expected to be zero.