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Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Exit poll: Obama wins women, blacks, Hispanics

Exit poll: Obama wins women, blacks, Hispanics

AP Photo
Shirley Curry puts on an "I Voted!" sticker after casting her ballot Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008 in Harvey, Ill. Lines of voters stretched down hallways and out doorways Tuesday, as Illinoisans flocked to the polls to cast their ballot in a historic election.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Barack Obama was winning handily among women, blacks and Hispanics, while whites supported John McCain, according to preliminary exit polls. Obama also was the overwhelming choice of the one in 10 voters who went to the polls for their first time Tuesday - a racially diverse group of mostly twentysomethings, half of whom call themselves Democrats.

Just over half of white voters overall were backing McCain - a group that had favored President Bush over John Kerry by 17 percentage points in 2004.

McCain, 72, also got support from just over half of senior citizens, coveted for their vigilance in going to the polls.

McCain also drew strength from white, working-class voters, exit polls showed. Whites who haven't finished college were giving him heavy support, but short of the 23-point margin by which Bush won their vote in 2004.

Overall, Obama's bid to become the nation's first black president drew the votes of more than half of women, two-thirds of Hispanic voters and nearly all blacks who went to the polls. A young and dynamic candidate at age 47, Obama was winning the under-30 vote by a 2-1 margin.

Women voters are typically the key to a Democratic presidential victory, and Obama was pulling well over half their votes. He held a narrower edge over McCain among all men, according to the preliminary national survey, which doesn't show how candidates performed in state-by-state voting for president.

First-time voters were key to Obama's strategy, and they were voting for him by a 3-1 margin. Young voters tend to favor Democrats, but not in such high numbers. Four years ago, Kerry won 53 percent of their votes.

One in five of the new voters was black, almost twice the proportion of blacks among voters overall. Another one in five of the new voters was Hispanic. About two-thirds of them were under 30 years old.

A third of first-time voters this year said they were political independents; only about one in 5 was a Republican.

Twenty-six-year-old Jennifer Sunderlin, who typically votes Republican, said she didn't stick with her usual party this election year.

"Don't tell my Dad, but I voted for Barack Obama," said Sunderlin, of Albany, N.Y. She said she was turned off by McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.

She wasn't alone. Four in 10 voters overall said Palin was an important factor in deciding who to vote for, and this group leaned slightly toward Obama. But nine in 10 Republicans calling Palin's selection important were voting for McCain.

Andrew Greenaway, 18, said he was swayed by all "the buzz" about Obama in his dorm at Cleveland State University. "All my buddies told me to vote for Obama," he said.

About a third of voters said the quality that mattered most was the candidates' ability to bring about change - the mantra of Obama's campaign - while a fifth focused on the candidates' experience, McCain's strong point.

"I don't think Obama knows what he's doing," said Craig Burnett, 55, a Republican in Hagerstown, Md. "He's too young and inexperienced."

More than half strongly disapproved of the way Bush has handled the job, and they overwelmingly voted for Obama.

Two-thirds of voters worried about how to pay for health care and at least as many feared terrorists will attack the U.S. again. But the economy weighed heaviest on their minds.

Six in 10 voters picked it as the most important issue facing the nation, according to preliminary polling. None of the four other issues listed by exit pollsters - energy, Iraq, terrorism and health care - was picked by more than one in 10 people.

Almost everyone agreed the economy's condition is either "poor" or "not good." And more than eight in 10 said they were worried about the economy's direction over the next year.

Half of voters said they're very worried the current economic crisis will harm their families, and another third were somewhat worried about that. One reason: about two-thirds of voters have stock market investments, such as retirement funds.

Yet there was room for optimism - nearly half predict the economy will get better over the next year.

In a historic year, when Obama could become the first black president, nine out of 10 voters said the race of the candidates wasn't important to their votes. Almost as many said age wasn't important, a nod to 72-year-old McCain.

The results were from exit polling by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks conducted in 300 precincts nationally. The preliminary data was based on 10,747 voters, including telephone polling of 2,407 people who voted early, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point for the entire sample, smaller for subgroups.

Preliminary results from a national Associated Press exit poll of voters in Tuesday's elections:

THE ECONOMY DOMINATES

Six in 10 voters picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation, overwhelming other problems named. Barack Obama was doing strongly with this group - nearly six in 10 of those naming the economy were backing the Democrat. None of four other issues on the list - energy, Iraq, terrorism and health care - was picked by more than one in 10.

Further underlining voters' preoccupation with the economy, nine in 10 said it is in bad shape. Nearly six in 10 of this group were backing Obama, too. In addition, almost nine in 10 said they are worried about the economy's direction, and here, too, almost six in 10 were supporting Obama.

NEW VOTERS

About one in 10 voters said this was the first year they have voted - roughly the same proportion of new voters as in 2004. About seven in 10 of them were voting for Obama. Overall, six in 10 new voters were under age 30, one in five were black and another one in five were Hispanic - all far greater than their share of the entire population. All of those groups were voting overwhelmingly for Obama. In addition, half were Democrats and a third were independents - and both were heavily favoring Obama. New voters were making up about one in seven Obama supporters but only about one in 20 of Republican John McCain's.

THE PALIN FACTOR

A third of Republicans and about the same share of conservatives said McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate was an important factor in deciding who to vote for. Underscoring how well she has fired up the party's base, both of those groups leaned heavily toward McCain. But her choice had the opposite effect on other voters. About a quarter of independents said Palin's selection had an important impact on their decision, and just over half of them were supporting Obama. More than four in 10 moderates also said her choice was a factor - and six in 10 of them were Obama voters.

CANDIDATES' QUALITIES

More than a third of voters said they most wanted a candidate who would bring change to Washington, and they were voting heavily for Obama. Nearly as many said they wanted someone who shares their values, and six in 10 preferred McCain. About one in five were looking most for experience, a group that heavily favored McCain. A smaller portion were seeking a candidate who cares about people like them, and they favored Obama.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Nearly six in 10 women were Obama voters, while men divided their votes about evenly.

Just over half of whites were backing McCain, giving him a slender edge in a group that President Bush carried by 17 percentage points in 2004. White women were about evenly divided between the two candidates, while just over half of white men were supporting McCain.

One group Obama has had trouble with all year - whites who haven't finished college - were leaning solidly toward McCain, almost approaching the 23-point margin by which Bush won them in 2004.

Virtually all blacks were supporting Obama. But while Bush got about one in 10 black votes in 2004, McCain got almost none of their votes this year.

About two-thirds of Hispanics were also behind Obama. That was significantly stronger than the four in 10 who backed Bush four years ago.

More than two-thirds of people under age 30 were backing Obama, while those age 65 and up were tilting slightly toward McCain.

According to the early results, blacks and people under age 30 - two groups Obama heavily courted - were comprising roughly the same portion of all voters as they did in 2004.

PARTY MATTERS

About four in 10 voters were Democrats while about a third were Republicans. Roughly nine in 10 Democrats were backing Obama, and about the same number of Republicans were supporting McCain.

Independents were voting for Obama by a modest margin.

Answering one question that has been lingering since Obama defeated Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primaries, Obama was doing strongly among Democrats who'd supported the New York senator and former first lady in the primaries. About nine in 10 of them said they were voting for Obama.

OTHER WORRIES

Two-thirds of voters said they were worried about being able to afford the health care they need. Of this group, about six in 10 were supporting Obama. On an issue that had been one of McCain's strengths during the campaign, about seven in 10 voters said they worry that there will be another terrorist attack in the United States. Those voters, though, were about evenly divided between the two candidates.

OTHER ISSUES

Six in 10 voters said future appointments to the Supreme Court were an important factor in their vote. This group leaned slightly toward Obama.

Two-thirds favor drilling for oil offshore in U.S. waters. Six in 10 of them were McCain backers.

More than half oppose the $700 billion government plan to help failing financial companies. These voters were about equally split between McCain and Obama.

---

The results were from exit polling by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks conducted in 300 precincts nationally. The preliminary data was based on 10,747 voters, including telephone polling of 2,407 people who voted early, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point for the entire sample, smaller for subgroups.


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