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| In this photo provided by the Saudi Press Agency, Saudi Arabia's newly enthroned King Salman, right, talks with Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah during the funeral of Salman's half brother King Abdullah at the Imam Turki bin Abdullah mosque in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Friday, Jan. 23, 2015. Saudi state TV reported early Friday that King Abdullah died at the age of 90. |
DUBAI, United
Arab Emirates (AP) -- Saudi Arabia's new monarch inherits the throne
at a moment when the oil-rich kingdom is being buffeted by a plunge in
the value of its most valuable commodity, growing challenges by
activists at home and deepening turmoil on its borders that stands to
benefit rival Iran.
Those who know King Salman
bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud note the 79-year-old's diplomatic skills, honed
over nearly five decades as governor of the capital, Riyadh. Those
abilities will be put to the test as he positions his country to
confront a collapsing Yemen on its southern frontier and threats from
the extremist Islamic State group to the north in Iraq.
But
he is unlikely to bring fundamental changes to the country's policies
and its embrace of the ultraconservative Wahhabi brand of Sunni Islam.
Saudi
kings derive their legitimacy through the support of the clerical
establishment, limiting the potential for radical change. Salman already
has had plenty of opportunity to put his stamp on Saudi policies, both
in his role as defense minister since 2011 and as he increasingly took
over duties for his half brother, King Abdullah, who died early Friday.
Salman
made clear he has no intention to shift course in a nationally
televised address hours after he succeeded Abdullah, vowing to hew to
"the correct policies which Saudi Arabia has followed since its
establishment."
His biggest immediate crisis
is how to deal with deeply impoverished Yemen, which is home to what the
U.S. sees as al-Qaida's most dangerous branch. Its militants have
infiltrated the porous border to launch attacks against the OPEC
heavyweight.
Yemen's U.S. and Saudi-backed
president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, quit just hours before Salman
ascended to the throne, driven out by pressure from Shiite rebels known
as Houthis who control the capital of Sanaa. The rebels have been
accused of being backed by overwhelmingly Shiite Iran, although the
Houthis deny any links.
"Their greatest worry
is what's going on in Yemen, which is very much their backyard," said
Simon Henderson, director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The
Washington Institute.
Salman Shaikh, director
of the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar, said that from a Saudi
perspective, the advances by the Houthis in Yemen add to a "sense of
encirclement by Iran," which is deepening its ties with Shiite-led Iraq
and is the main regional patron for embattled Syrian President Bashar
Assad.
The Sunni monarchy of the Gulf island
nation of Bahrain, a favorite getaway spot for Saudis just off the
kingdom's coast, has failed to quell unrest led by its Shiite majority
despite political and security backing by Riyadh.
Of
more concern, Iraq and a U.S.-led coalition that includes Saudi air
power is struggling to beat back the extremists of the Islamic State
group across Saudi Arabia's northern frontier. Earlier this month,
gunmen with belts of explosives attacked a Saudi security patrol near
the kingdom's 745-mile (1,200-kilometer) border with Iraq, killing three
soldiers and wounding at least three more. Saudi Arabia swiftly gave
shoot-to-kill orders to all border patrol afterward.
Saudi
Arabia took a dim view of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki,
and Riyadh had been taking steps to mend ties with Iraq's new leadership
even before Salman's ascension. It announced this month that it was
considering reopening an embassy in Baghdad for the first time in more
than two decades.
Aziz Jaber, a political
science professor at Baghdad's Mustansiriyah University, said Salman has
no choice but to try to defuse political and sectarian tensions
"because the chaos in the region has reached its peak, and danger is
knocking everybody's door."
A nearly 60 percent drop in oil prices since summer could limit Salman's ability to maneuver in the long run.
The
kingdom relies on oil revenues to fund most of its expansive budget,
which covers lavish payouts to royal family members as well as perks
such as subsidized fuel and large numbers of public-sector jobs to
ordinary Saudis.
While the country has
hundreds of billions of dollars in cash reserves stashed away, lower oil
prices give it less flexibility to maintain spending levels at home and
to influence its policies abroad. Current oil prices of below $50 a
barrel are well short of what the kingdom needs to balance its budget -
$89 a barrel in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund.
As
OPEC's biggest oil exporter and one of the world's largest producers,
Saudi Arabia has the ability to cut output significantly to try to drive
up prices. It hasn't shown willingness to do so for now, preferring to
maintain market share and pressure higher-cost producers rather that
trim its own production. That policy, which has dealt a blow to Iran and
its backer, Russia, is unlikely to change in the near future, analysts
say.
"The Oil Ministry is largely headed by
technocrats, and so it is relatively shielded from changes in the
kingdom's political environment," Jason Tuvey, Middle East economist at
Capital Economics, wrote in a report Friday.
Ruling
family members are nonetheless involved in the country's biggest
industry. One of Salman's sons, Prince Abdulaziz, is the deputy oil
minister.
Salman faces plenty of pressures at home too.
Within
his own family, he bolstered those closest to him. Salman's designated
heir, 69-year-old Prince Muqrin, is the youngest of the sons of Saudi
Arabia's founder, King Abdul-Aziz Al Saud.
Salman
also named a second-in-line to the throne, Interior Minister Prince
Mohammed bin Nayef, who is the son of Salman's late full brother Nayef.
He also named one of his sons who is in his 30s, Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, as defense minister.
A ballooning
youth population is putting pressure on the ruling family to do more to
create well-paying jobs in the country, where more than half of the
population of 20 million is under 25. Doing so will likely involve
enticing more private-sector companies to a country where more than
two-thirds of employed citizens work for the government.
Officials
said last month that half of all public expenditures go for wages and
allowances, so any cuts risk stirring resentment and undoing much of the
goodwill generated by the extra spending that Salman's predecessor put
in place after the 2011 Arab Spring.
The rapid
rise of social media is also upending old assumptions, giving greater
voice to everyone from young jihadists to Saudi women protesting
restrictions on driving in the kingdom. The Arab Spring, while limited
in the kingdom, also exposed younger generations to the possibility of
challenging long-entrenched Arab regimes.
Salman
will need to decide how harshly his government will deal with activists
who test the limits of freedom in the ultraconservative country.
The
kingdom, for instance, has come under renewed scrutiny from rights
groups over its decision to publicly flog Raif Badawi. He was sentenced
last year to 10 years in prison and 1,000 lashes meted out over 20
sessions for criticizing Saudi Arabia's clerics and mocking the
country's morality police on a blog that he founded. The first round of
lashes was administered this month. Another Saudi man was recently
arrested for filming a woman's public beheading and posting it online.
Salman's
predecessor took some modest steps to empower women, including giving
them seats on the government's advisory Shura Council and allowing them
to participate in the Olympics for the first time in 2012.
But
many limits on women's freedom remain. They cannot, for example, travel
or marry without a male guardian's permission. Saudi women are
increasingly challenging those strictures, particularly the prohibition
on driving, by getting behind the wheel. Those acts of defiance are not
likely to abate under Salman.
"People you talk
to, they are much more willing to raise their voice now than before,"
said Ali al-Ahmed, director of the Washington-based Institute of Gulf
Affairs. "When Abdullah came, people had high hopes. I don't think that
is there now. ... People think of (Salman) as another Al Saud prince who
is not willing to share power, so I think people are going to
accelerate their demands."
