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| FILE - In this Oct. 12, 2012, file photo Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney campaigns in Lancaster, Ohio. It's either candidate's race to win as Obama and Romney prepare to dig in for their second debate Tuesday night, Oct. 16, 2012, with just three weeks to go until the election and voting already well under way in many states. |
WEST PALM BEACH,
Fla. (AP) -- It's either candidate's race to win as President Barack
Obama and Mitt Romney prepare for their second debate Tuesday night,
with just three weeks to go until the election and voting well under way
in many states.
The Republican challenger had
trailed the Democratic incumbent in national polls for weeks, but now
has drawn even, benefiting from a boost of enthusiasm following a strong
first debate performance 10 days ago.
While Romney's standing has
improved in some states, Obama retains an edge in the hunt for the 270
electoral votes needed to take the White House. The president also has
far more ways than Romney to reach that magic number.
But
that's not enough to calm nervous Democrats, even as they revel in Vice
President Joe Biden's pull-no-punches turn on the debate stage Thursday
night against GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan. They are looking
for an equally aggressive Obama to show up for the prime-time town-hall
style debate in Hempstead, N.Y.
"The race is
tightening," said Mo Elleithee, a Democratic campaign strategist and
former aide to Hillary Rodham Clinton during her primary campaign
against Obama in 2008. "It will be very, very close." But, he added,
"The president will win re-election."
Steve
Schmidt, the chief Republican strategist four years ago for GOP nominee
John McCain, acknowledged Obama's edge but said it could be erased if
the president comes off as defensive or dismissive in the second debate
as he did in the first. "If he has another debate performance anywhere
near that vicinity, it's going to go south for him," Schmidt said.
Last
week's feisty confrontation between Biden and Ryan set the stage for
Tuesday's presidential debate and gave Republicans an opening to
intensify their criticism about Obama's foreign policy. Romney has
jumped on Biden's assertion that "we weren't told" of an official
request for more security at a consulate in Libya that was attacked by
terrorists who killed the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans. The
White House spent the bulk of Friday trying to explain what Biden
meant.
Expect that issue to come up Tuesday.
As
the debate looms large as one of the final opportunities to affect the
trajectory of the race, both campaigns are working feverishly in the
nine most competitive states - Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New
Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin - to get their
core supporters to vote early and persuade undecided voters to back
their candidate.
TV ads are a near constant
presence, mailboxes are filled with campaign brochures and door-step
visits by volunteers are picking up. Obama, Romney, their running mates,
families and high-profile Democrats and Republicans are near constant
presences in those states, working to tip the balance in a tight race
where any factor could make a difference.
Romney's biggest challenge remains Ohio, where polls show Obama with a consistent, slight lead.
Without
Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would have to win nearly all the
other contested states, most of which are either too close to project a
winner or are leaning Obama's way, some solidly.
Given
the stakes, Romney spent the past week bearing down on Ohio,
campaigning there four of five days last week and boosting his
television advertising, according to ad-spending reports provided to The
Associated Press. Both Romney and Ryan scheduled events in the state
Saturday.
Ohio is proving to be tricky for
Romney. The state has an unemployment rate lower than the national
average and a revived energy sector built on natural gas. Also, Obama's
auto industry bailout is popular.
Plus, the
president has kept his eye squarely on the state even as polls showed
him in strong position. He has visited twice this month, and plans to
return in the coming week. Obama also has kept pace with Romney's Ohio
ad spending.
Elsewhere, polls show the race a
dead heat in Florida, the biggest prize up for grabs with 29 electoral
votes, and Virginia, where Romney has posted gains over the past week.
In North Carolina, polls also show the race close, although Obama has
trimmed his advertising in recent weeks. Surveys show Obama leading in
Colorado, Wisconsin and Iowa, and very narrowly in Nevada.
In
the aftermath of Romney's debate performance, Republicans have grown
more enthusiastic, which is a critical development in the homestretch. A
Pew Research Center poll last week found energy levels even for the
first time, with 68 percent of registered voters who say they back Obama
strongly supporting him and 67 percent of Romney voters strongly behind
him.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll on
voters favorability toward the candidates conducted after the first
debate showed Romney viewed as "strongly favorable" by 62 percent of
Republicans, his highest level in that poll.
Republicans
are working to harness that enthusiasm to counter Obama's tested
early-voting program, which in 2008 made the difference when Obama
carried Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina.
No votes will be counted until Nov. 6.
But early reports from North Carolina and Florida encourage GOP workers.
Among
the 29,400 voters who have cast absentee ballots in North Carolina, 54
percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are Democrats,
according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason
University. Democrats have a big lead in Iowa in terms of early ballots
cast by party registration.
Obama's voter
registration push has resulted in more Democrats than Republicans on the
voter rolls in most of the tightest states, including Florida and
Nevada, according to data from state election boards. Even so,
Republicans have narrowed the Democratic voter advantage since 2008 in
many of the battlegrounds, including Iowa.
